Overnight, while the US slept

Equities finished Friday well but lost the week. The S&P 500 closed +0.4% at 7,674.37, the Dow +1.0% at 53,277.01 and the Nasdaq +0.4% at 26,180.45, helped by a business-activity survey that came in at its strongest in more than four years. Even so, all three indices posted back-to-back weekly losses — the bond market, not earnings, set the tone all week.

Rates & DXY: The US 10-year Treasury yield finished at 4.74%, testing the 20-month highs it set earlier in the week, and the 30-year touched a 19-year high above 5.2% before the Treasury stepped in. That is the shape that matters: the long end is selling off harder than the short end — a "bear steepening" (long-dated borrowing costs rising faster than short-dated ones), which is the classic signature of investors demanding a risk premium on the government itself rather than repricing the economy. The DXY — the dollar's value against a basket of major currencies — sat at 98.82, down close to 1% on the week. Rising yields and a falling dollar together is the tell.

The dominant driver — a $40 trillion debt milestone and an emergency-flavoured fix. US national debt crossed $40 trillion on 18 August, five months after passing $39 trillion. Treasury Secretary Bessent's department responded by more than doubling its long-maturity debt buybacks to at least $4 billion per operation from 9 September. Yields dipped on the announcement — the 10-year closed down over 5bp to 4.647% that day, the 30-year down 9bp to 5.196% — then promptly rebounded as the market decided plumbing repairs don't fix a solvency narrative.

Now the framework question, because it matters for gold. There is a live supply-side shock running — Brent is near $93.78 after a second consecutive week up more than 5%, on Iran–US tensions, threatened sanctions and Strait of Hormuz risk. Normally an oil shock makes central banks hawkish, pushes real rates (interest rates after subtracting inflation) up, hands the dollar a yield bid and sends gold lower. And the policy channel here is genuinely open: July's FOMC produced a three-way dissent in favour of a hike, the first hawkish trio since 2016, and the market now prices about 9bp of tightening for September. So the bearish leg is available.

It isn't winning. The dollar refused the yield bid last week and gold went up more than 4%. My read is that the fiscal risk premium is simply the bigger force right now: when long yields rise because lenders want compensation rather than because growth is hot, the currency doesn't benefit — the alternative reserve asset does. I'm bullish gold on that basis, with clear eyes about what would break it.

Gold: trading 4610.11/4610.24. Today's range so far 4607.62–4624.19; Friday's high/low 4632.19 / 4508.81. That Friday range of $123 was enormous, and price has held the top third of it through the weekend — a modest gap higher into the Sydney reopen rather than any give-back. Spot is at its best since 18 May and has posted three straight weekly gains.

Crypto: Bitcoin 77,796.90 (RSI M15 59.4, ATR $330.50); today's range 77,479.17–78,021.17, Friday's high/low 78,818.67 / 76,442.17. Constructive but cooling after a violent week. Ether 2,463.57 (RSI M15 60.6, ATR $16.89); today 2,454.39–2,483.84, Friday 2,545.04 / 2,379.49 — about 3% off Friday's high. Both were driven by a genuine regulatory repricing: the SEC proposed a framework for crypto companies to raise capital, and the President pushed Congress to pass the Clarity Act, which would settle whether tokens are securities or commodities. The Treasury buyback news added a liquidity kicker on top.

Key FX:

• EURUSD 1.16743 — RSI 34.7 (approaching oversold — the momentum gauge that flags stretched moves), ATR 2.8 pips. Today's H/L 1.16794 / 1.16726, Friday's 1.17116 / 1.16688. The euro fell all Friday despite a soft dollar, and is now pressing Friday's low. That is euro weakness, not dollar strength.
• GBPUSD 1.36389 — RSI 41.1, ATR 4.5 pips. Friday's H/L 1.36756 / 1.36185. Mid-range and directionless; nothing for me here.
• USDJPY 158.936 — RSI 47.4, ATR 8.3 pips. Friday's H/L 159.136 / 158.355. The pair has come a long way down from the 160 line Tokyo defended earlier this month, and it's done so on dollar softness rather than any change of heart at the Bank of Japan.
• AUDUSD 0.71674 — RSI 41.6, ATR 3.0 pips. Friday's H/L 0.71802 / 0.71078 — a 72-pip range, and the Aussie is sitting near the top of it. It has been the quiet beneficiary of the dollar's fiscal problem. Wednesday's CPI is the week's decider.
• NZDUSD 0.59746 — RSI 39.3, ATR 2.9 pips. Friday's H/L 0.59880 / 0.59379. Firm but capped below 0.6000.
• USDCHF 0.80157 — RSI 60.9, ATR 2.8 pips. Friday's H/L 0.80208 / 0.79830. Notable that the franc hasn't rallied in a week of debt anxiety; the safe-haven flow has gone almost entirely into metal.

Cross-asset snapshot:

Asset	Now	vs Prior Close	Vector
S&P 500	7,674.37	+0.4% Friday, lower on the week	Risk-on Friday, cautious week
US 10Y	4.74%	Rising, at 20-month highs	Hawkish / rising term premium
US 30Y	~5.20%	19-year high	Fiscal risk premium
DXY	98.82	−1% on the week	USD soft
Gold	4,610.17	−$22 from Friday's 4,632.19 high	Bullish — the fiscal bid
Bitcoin	77,796.90	−$1,022 from Friday's 78,818.67 high	Strong, consolidating
Brent	~$93.78	+5% for a second week	Iran / Hormuz supply risk

Monday sessions in Asia are thin and gap-prone, and this one is a light data day ahead of a very heavy back half of the week. Expect ranges to be narrow until London arrives, and treat any dramatic move in the first two hours with suspicion.

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