Overnight, while the US slept

Risk-on rip on Iran de-escalation: US stocks surged Thursday after President Trump said he had cancelled planned strikes on Iran, with talks taken "to the highest level of Iranian leadership." Dow +1.85% to 50,841, S&P 500 +1.75% (~7,390), Nasdaq +2.54% — the broad "risk-on" tone (investors buying riskier assets) snapping back a fearful week.

Rates & DXY: US 10-year Treasury yield (the benchmark government borrowing rate) eased to ~4.47%, down ~10bp on the session. The US Dollar Index (DXY — the dollar against a basket of majors) slipped −0.29% to 99.66, soft on the day even as the greenback stays the market's preferred safe haven.

Iran pause = the dominant driver — diagnose the gold read carefully: the cancellation pulled the geopolitical risk premium out of the tape. Crucially, this is the supply-side shock easing: Brent crude fell ~−4.4% to ~$89 (WTI ~$86.8) as war-disruption fears over the Strait of Hormuz faded → the inflation impulse cools → and capital still rotates into US dollar assets as the safe haven of choice. Per the standing framework, a fading supply-side/haven bid is gold-BEARISH, not bullish — "no war" here means less reason to hold gold, with the USD absorbing the residual haven flow.

Gold — web reference (MT5 feed offline): XAUUSD ~$4,226, up ~0.3% on the day, rebounding off its 2026 low but still down ~10% on the month. The bounce looks corrective within a clear down-leg; the macro set-up (de-escalation + oil down + USD haven) argues for selling strength, not chasing the bounce.

Crypto: BTCUSD ~$63,300 (+1.75% / 24h), ETHUSD ~$1,662 (+1.0%). Both bounced modestly but the complex is deep in fear — the Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 12 ("extreme fear"), versus 42 a month ago. Structurally heavy, tactically oversold.

Key FX — web reference (MT5 feed offline):

• EURUSD ~1.1573 — near its lowest since early April. The ECB's recent 25bp hike (its first since 2023, citing energy-cost/inflation risk from the Iran/Hormuz disruption) has not lifted the euro — the energy drag is winning. Bias: heavy.
• USDJPY ~160.24 — pinned above the 160 handle, squarely in MOF intervention-watch territory (Japan's Ministry of Finance has historically stepped in to support the yen near these levels). Two-way tail risk.
• AUDUSD ~0.7045 — soft (−0.1%); the oil slide is a mild terms-of-trade negative for the commodity-linked Aussie.

Cross-asset snapshot:

Asset	Now	vs Prior Close	Vector
S&P 500	~7,390	+1.75%	Risk-on
US 10Y	4.47%	Falling (~−10bp)	Mildly dovish
DXY	99.66	−0.29%	USD soft (still haven)
XAUUSD	~$4,226	+0.3% (−10% MoM)	Bearish — framework
BTCUSD	~$63,300	+1.75%	Weak bounce (F&G 12)
Brent	~$89	−4.4%	De-escalation

Context: Friday into the weekend — expect thinning liquidity and elevated headline sensitivity around Iran.

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