Overnight, while the US slept

Lead theme — war premium unwinds on US–Iran ceasefire: The dominant driver into the weekend was de-escalation. Pakistan's PM said a US–Iran ceasefire is "now in place," with President Trump declaring the conflict over, the US naval blockade lifted and the Strait of Hormuz reopening; a signing ceremony is slated for 19 June in Switzerland. Iran's Foreign Ministry pushed back on the Sunday timeline and urged caution — so the deal is directionally bullish-risk but not yet inked. Net: safe-haven flows are unwinding, oil is lower, and equity risk appetite firmed.

US equities (Fri 12 Jun close): S&P 500 +0.5% to 7,431.46, Nasdaq Composite +0.31% to 25,888.84, Dow +0.7% (+353.5pts) to 51,202.26. Sentiment was helped by peace-deal optimism and a splashy SpaceX (SPCX) debut that closed +19%.

Rates & DXY: US 10-year Treasury yield around 4.45–4.49%; Fed funds at 3.50–3.75% with the market pricing 99.5% no-change at this week's FOMC. DXY sits in the **98–99** area (soft) — real rates (interest rates after subtracting inflation) remain elevated with CPI near 4.2%, which is the key weight on gold. (Exact intraday DXY/Brent prints weren't retrievable at run-time — FX levels below are anchored to the MT5 feed per spec, not to web quotes.)

Gold — MT5 authoritative feed: XAUUSD bid 4218.8 / ask 4219.0. Day range 4170.3–4246.65. Prior-day H/L 4220.1 / 4023.89. Gold is consolidating mid-range after a second straight weekly decline (≈$4,514 on 2 Jun → ≈$4,200 on 12 Jun). Framework diagnosis: this Middle-East flashpoint was a supply-side risk (oil / Strait of Hormuz). With the conflict resolving, the oil/supply premium is deflating and the safe-haven demand-side bid is unwinding — both vectors point gold lower/sideways, reinforced by sticky inflation keeping the Fed on hold and real rates firm. This is not "no-ceasefire-so-buy-gold"; it's the opposite — de-escalation is gold-bearish here. RSI M15 54.3 (neutral) leaves room to fade a bounce.

Crypto: MT5 BTCUSD 65,390 (RSI M15 86.1 overbought, ATR $217). Day H 65,436 / Day L 63,825. Prior-day H/L 64,716 / 63,632 — trading above prior-day high after a Friday pop (+3.4%) on the war-end headline. MT5 ETHUSD 1,718.6 (RSI M15 87.4 overbought, ATR $8.09). Day H 1,721.12 / Day L 1,667.92. Prior-day H/L 1,693.42 / 1,651.47 — also above prior-day high, momentum strong but stretched. (Note: some web feeds quoted BTC nearer ~$64k with a daily-RSI oversold read; that's a different timeframe — MT5 is the authoritative level per spec, and divergence is flagged here.)

Key FX — MT5 feed:

• EURUSD 1.15993 — RSI 74.7 (overbought), ATR 5.6 pips. Day H 1.15991 / Day L 1.15734. Prior-day H/L 1.15895 / 1.15572. Above prior-day high; stretched.
• GBPUSD 1.34215 — RSI 59.9 (neutral), ATR 6.3 pips. Day H 1.34273 / Day L 1.34004. Prior-day H/L 1.34263 / 1.33836. Mid-range, no edge.
• USDJPY 159.842 — RSI 17.3 (deeply oversold), ATR 5.4 pips. Day H 160.159 / Day L 159.786. Prior-day H/L 160.376 / 159.877 — broke below prior-day low; yen broadly bid. MOF intervention (Japan's finance ministry stepping in to support the yen) is an UPSIDE risk above ~160, capping bounces.
• AUDUSD 0.70766 — RSI 70.9 (overbought), ATR 5.9 pips. Day H 0.70811 / Day L 0.70412. Prior-day H/L 0.706 / 0.70213. Above prior-day high; stretched.
• NZDUSD 0.58528 — RSI 73.8 (overbought), ATR 5.2 pips. Above prior-day high.
• USDCHF 0.79495 — RSI 29.1 (oversold), ATR 5.3 pips. Day H 0.79654 / Day L 0.79418. Prior-day H/L 0.7976 / 0.79408. CHF safe-haven bid extended — a prime de-escalation mean-reversion candidate.

Cross-asset snapshot:

Asset	Now	vs Prior Close	Vector
S&P 500	7,431.46	+0.5% (Fri)	Risk-on
US 10Y	~4.45–4.49%	Steady/firm	Mildly hawkish
DXY	~98–99	Soft	USD slightly weaker
XAUUSD (MT5)	4,218.9	−$1.2 vs pdH	Bearish (de-escalation, real rates)
BTCUSD (MT5)	65,390	+$674 vs pdH	Strong but overbought
Brent	↓ (figure n/a)	Lower	Hormuz reopening / peace

Context: thin Monday-Asia liquidity; the week is back-loaded (Retail Sales Tue, FOMC Wed-US, Juneteenth Fri, Iran signing Fri). Headline risk dominates.

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